Factors affecting COVID-19 cases before epidemic peaks

Autor:	null Andika, P. Wulandari, Halmar Halide
Rok vydání:	2021
Předmět:	Asia Policy Pandemic SARS-CoV-2 Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health COVID-19 Humans Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Pandemics Article
Zdroj:	Gaceta Sanitaria Gaceta Sanitaria, Vol 35, Iss, Pp S103-S106 (2021)
ISSN:	1578-1283
Popis:	Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted people's normal life as a result of strict policies applied to slow down the pandemic. To find out how extensive the virus spread is, most countries increase their daily testing rates. Method: This simple modelling work uses stringency index and daily testing (including the lagged version up to the previous 14 days) to predict daily COVID-19 cases in India and Indonesia. A Stepwise Multiple Regression (SWMR) subroutine is used in this modelling to select factors based on a 0.01 significant level affecting daily COVID-19 cases before the epidemic peaks. Result: The models have high predictability close to 94% (Indonesia) and 99% (India). Increasing number of daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia is associated with the country's increased testing capacity. On the other hand, stringency indices play more important role in determining India's daily COVID-19 cases. Cloclusion: Our finding shows that one question remains to be answered as to why testing and strict policy differ in determining daily cases in both Asian countries.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::4c8e5bd508284eae2e5d8ec6182501f0 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34929788 Zobrazit plný text záznamu