New satellite-based estimates show significant trends in spring phenology and complex sensitivities to temperature and precipitation at northern European latitudes
| Autor: | Anna Maria Jönsson, Johan Lindström, Hongxiao Jin, Per Jönsson, Lars Eklundh, Cecilia Olsson |
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| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Northern European latitudes Climate Change Health Toxicology and Mutagenesis Plant Development Growing season 01 natural sciences Latitude 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Spring phenology trend Naturvetenskap Precipitation 0105 earth and related environmental sciences 030203 arthritis & rheumatology Ecology Phenology Global warming Temperature Vegetation Remote sensing Climate sensitivity Europe Climatology Spatial ecology Environmental science Seasons Natural Sciences Plant phenology index (PPI) |
| Zdroj: | International Journal of Biometeorology. 63:763-775 |
| ISSN: | 1432-1254 0020-7128 |
| Popis: | Recent climate warming has altered plant phenology at northern European latitudes, but conclusions regarding the spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate are still challenging as quantitative estimates are strongly diverging. To generate consistent estimates of broad-scale spatially continuous spring plant phenology at northern European latitudes (>50 degrees N) from 2000 to 2016, we used a novel vegetation index, the plant phenology index (PPI), derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. To obtain realistic and strong estimates, the phenology trends and their relationships with temperature and precipitation over the past 17years were analyzed using a panel data method. We found that in the studied region the start of the growing season (SOS) has on average advanced by 0.30dayyear(-1). The SOS showed an overall advancement rate of 2.47day degrees C-1 to spring warming, and 0.18daycm(-1) to decreasing precipitation in spring. The previous winter and summer temperature had important effects on the SOS but were spatially heterogeneous. Overall, the onset of SOS was delayed 0.66day degrees C-1 by winter warming and 0.56day degrees C-1 by preceding summer warming. The precipitation in winter and summer influenced the SOS in a relatively weak and complex manner. The findings indicate rapid recent phenological changes driven by combined seasonal climates in northern Europe. Previously unknown spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate drivers are presented that improve our capacity to understand and foresee future climate effects on vegetation. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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