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Housing markets develop very heterogeneously, with some trends even running in opposite directions. It is vital to consider the local trend of each municipality in order to capture dynamic developments in the housing market. This paper presents a method of forecasting demand for municipal housing. It has discussed about the adoption potential of such method to the regional or even international level. Since 2002, the IOER has been operating a web-based program to forecast municipal housing demand called "Kommunale Wohnungsnachfrageprognose". This is an open access forecasting platform that supports individual module-based forecasts of population, household patterns, housing offer and housing demand. Potential users can customize the forecasting of housing demand according to three different types of households and up to seven categories of housing market. Individual forecasts can be simulated for multiple scenarios. After choosing a base year, the user is given estimates for five-year periods in each forecasting module, up to a final forecasting horizon of 15 years. Generally, the individual forecasting method can be implemented using local municipal statistics as input data. For the last 17 years, this open access online service has helped many municipalities in eastern Germany to draw up an integrated urban development concept in the context of the federal programme "Stadtumbau Ost". An extension of the online service includes specific regional parameters to forecast housing demand for municipalities in western Germany. The service provides support to perform simplified forecasting of trends in the housing market for Polish and Czech municipalities and for small municipalities at the national border. The method can also be transferred to other countries or regions. To realize this, an initial study must be performed to determine specific basic parameters such as birth rate, mortality rate, household trends or housing patterns for different spatial scales and dimensions. These then can easily be implemented within scope of the online program. |
