Predicting spread and effective control measures for African swine fever-Should we blame the boars?
| Autor: | Sophie Ip, Emma Snary, Tomasz Podgórski, Paul Gale, Robin R. L. Simons, Louise A. Kelly, Rachel A. Taylor |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
endocrine system
Veterinary medicine Asia 040301 veterinary sciences Swine Population Sus scrofa Animals Wild Biology law.invention Disease Outbreaks 0403 veterinary science 03 medical and health sciences Wild boar law QA273 biology.animal Animals SF Animal culture education African Swine Fever 030304 developmental biology Probability 0303 health sciences education.field_of_study General Veterinary General Immunology and Microbiology Behavior Animal urogenital system Risk of infection Outbreak 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences General Medicine African Swine Fever Virus 3. Good health Europe Transmission (mechanics) Biological dispersal Risk assessment |
| Zdroj: | Transboundary and emerging diseasesREFERENCES. 68(2) |
| ISSN: | 1865-1682 1865-1674 |
| Popis: | An ongoing, continually spreading, outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), following its identification in Georgia in 2007, has resulted in 17 European and 12 Asian countries reporting cases by April 2020, with cases occurring in both wild boar and domestic pigs. Curtailing further spread of ASF requires understanding of the transmission pathways of the disease. ASF is self-sustaining in the wild boar population, and they have been implicated as one of the main drivers of transmission within Europe. We developed a spatially explicit model to estimate the risk of infection with ASF in wild boar and pigs due to natural movement of wild boar that is applicable across the whole of Europe. We demonstrate the model by using it to predict the probability that early cases of ASF in Poland were caused by wild boar dispersion. The risk of infection in 2015 is computed due to wild boar cases in Poland in 2014, compared against reported cases in 2015, and then the procedure is repeated for 2015-2016. We find that long- and medium-distance spread of ASF (i.e. >30 km) is unlikely to have occurred due to wild boar dispersal, due in part to the generally short distances wild boar will travel ( |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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