Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate
| Autor: | Sylvie Gauthier, Emily S. Hope, John H. Pedlar, Daniel W. McKenney, Brian J. Stocks |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
Time Factors 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Poison control lcsh:Medicine Wildfire Management 01 natural sciences Geographical locations Trees Wildfires Mathematical and Statistical Techniques Environmental protection lcsh:Science Climatology Multidisciplinary Mathematical Models 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences Engineering and Technology Seasons Research Article Canada Climate Change Climate change Research and Analysis Methods Fires Meteorology Fire protection Temperate climate Humans Ecosystem 0105 earth and related environmental sciences 040101 forestry Wildfire suppression Fire regime Fire Suppression Technology Ecology and Environmental Sciences lcsh:R Models Theoretical Fire Engineering Boreal Greenhouse gas Firefighters Random Walk North America Earth Sciences 0401 agriculture forestry and fisheries Environmental science lcsh:Q Physical geography People and places |
| Zdroj: | PLoS ONE, Vol 11, Iss 8, p e0157425 (2016) PLoS ONE |
| ISSN: | 1932-6203 |
| Popis: | Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980–2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980–2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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