Impact of COVID-19 pandemic virus on G8 countries' financial indices based on artificial neural network
| Autor: | Hazem Al-Najjar, Hamzeh F. Assous, Dania Al-Najjar, Nadia Al-Rousan, Dana Al-Najjar |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Al-Najjar, Hazem, Al-Rousan, Nadia |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Artificial neural network
Stock market media_common.quotation_subject 010102 general mathematics Group eight 010501 environmental sciences Discount points 01 natural sciences Stock market index Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient Interest rate symbols.namesake Pandemic Lockdown symbols Econometrics Economics 0101 mathematics Business and International Management General Economics Econometrics and Finance Stock (geology) 0105 earth and related environmental sciences media_common |
| Popis: | Purpose The COVID-19 pandemic virus has affected the largest economies around the world, especially Group 8 and Group 20. The increasing numbers of confirmed and deceased cases of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide are causing instability in stock indices every day. These changes resulted in the G8 suffering major losses due to the spread of the pandemic. This paper aims to study the impact of COVID-19 events using country lockdown announcement on the most important stock indices in G8 by using seven lockdown variables. To find the impact of the COVID-19 virus on G8, a correlation analysis and an artificial neural network model are adopted. Design/methodology/approach In this study, a Pearson correlation is used to study the strength of lockdown variables on international indices, where neural network is used to build a prediction model that can estimate the movement of stock markets independently. The neural network used two performance metrics including R2 and mean square error (MSE). Findings The results of stock indices prediction showed that R2 values of all G8 are between 0.979 and 0.990, where MSE values are between 54 and 604. The results showed that the COVID-19 events had a strong negative impact on stock movement, with the lowest point on the March of all G8 indices. Besides, the US lockdown and interest rate changes are the most affected by the G8 stock trading, followed by Germany, France and the UK. Originality/value The study has used artificial intelligent neural network to study the impact of US lockdown, decrease the interest rate in the USA and the announce of lockdown in different G8 countries. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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