Impact analysis of climate change on rail systems for adaptation planning: A UK case
Autor: | Paul Tae-Woo Lee, Zhuohua Qu, Timothy Nichol, Tianni Wang, Geoff Clarke, Daniel Bowden, Delia Dimitriu, Zaili Yang |
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Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
050210 logistics & transportation
GE HE Status quo 020209 energy media_common.quotation_subject 05 social sciences Flooding (psychology) Climate change Transportation 02 engineering and technology Phase (combat) Climatic data 0502 economics and business 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Business Resilience (network) Adaptation (computer science) Environmental planning Rail infrastructure General Environmental Science Civil and Structural Engineering media_common |
Zdroj: | Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 83:102324 |
ISSN: | 1361-9209 |
Popis: | Climate change poses critical challenges for rail infrastructure and operations. However, the systematic analysis of climate risks and the associated costs of tackling them, particularly from a quantitative perspective, is still at an embryonic phase due to the kaleidoscopic nature of climate change impacts and lack of precise climatic data. To cope with such challenges, an advanced Fuzzy Bayesian Reasoning (FBR) model is applied in this paper to understand climate threats of the railway system. This model ranks climate risks under high uncertainty in data and comprehensively evaluates these risks by taking account of infrastructure resilience and specific aspects of severity of consequence. Through conducting a nationwide survey on the British railway system, it dissects the status quo of primary climate risks. The survey implies that the top potential climate threats are heavy precipitation and floods. The primary risks caused by the climate threats are bridges collapsing and bridge foundation damage due to flooding and landslips. The findings can aid transport planners to prioritise climate risks and develop rational adaptation measures and strategies. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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