A risk prediction tool for individuals with a family history of breast, ovarian, or pancreatic cancer: BRCAPANCPRO
| Autor: | Gloria M. Petersen, Ann G. Schwartz, Alison P. Klein, Michael Goggins, Amanda L. Blackford, Ralph H. Hruban, Ayelet Borgida, Erica J. Childs, Michele L. Cote, Kari G. Rabe, Sapna Syngal, Nancy Porter, Giovanni Parmigiani, Steven Gallinger |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Oncology
Male Cancer Research medicine.medical_specialty Pedigree chart Breast Neoplasms Target population Risk Assessment Article Internal medicine Pancreatic cancer Medicine Humans Family history Medical History Taking Ovarian Neoplasms Cancer prevention business.industry medicine.disease Pancreatic Neoplasms Female Model risk Risk assessment business Ovarian cancer |
| Zdroj: | Br J Cancer |
| ISSN: | 1532-1827 |
| Popis: | Introduction Identifying families with an underlying inherited cancer predisposition is a major goal of cancer prevention efforts. Mendelian risk models have been developed to better predict the risk associated with a pathogenic variant of developing breast/ovarian cancer (with BRCAPRO) and the risk of developing pancreatic cancer (PANCPRO). Given that pathogenic variants involving BRCA2 and BRCA1 predispose to all three of these cancers, we developed a joint risk model to capture shared susceptibility. Methods We expanded the existing framework for PANCPRO and BRCAPRO to jointly model risk of pancreatic, breast, and ovarian cancer and validated this new model, BRCAPANCPRO on three data sets each reflecting the common target populations. Results BRCAPANCPRO outperformed the prior BRCAPRO and PANCPRO models and yielded good discrimination for differentiating BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers from non-carriers (AUCs 0.79, 95% CI: 0.73-0.84 and 0.70, 95% CI: 0.60-0.80) in families seen in high-risk clinics and pancreatic cancer family registries, respectively. In addition, BRCAPANCPRO was reasonably well calibrated for predicting future risk of pancreatic cancer (observed-to-expected (O/E) ratio = 0.81 [0.69, 0.94]). Discussion The BRCAPANCPRO model provides improved risk assessment over our previous risk models, particularly for pedigrees with a co-occurrence of pancreatic cancer and breast and/or ovarian cancer. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Full text from SpringerLink