Nowcasting pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 hospitalizations in the Netherlands
| Autor: | Tessa M. van’t Klooster, W. Marijn van Ballegooijen, Jacco Wallinga, Michiel van Boven, Cornelia C. Wielders, Tjibbe Donker |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Faculteit Medische Wetenschappen/UMCG |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2011 |
| Předmět: |
medicine.medical_specialty
Disease notification Epidemiology medicine.disease_cause 01 natural sciences 010104 statistics & probability 03 medical and health sciences Influenza A Virus H1N1 Subtype 0302 clinical medicine Intensive care Influenza Human Health care medicine Influenza A virus Humans 030212 general & internal medicine A(H1N1) 0101 mathematics Intensive care medicine Netherlands Retrospective Studies Estimation business.industry Incidence (epidemiology) Public health Estimation techniques medicine.disease Influenza 3. Good health Hospitalization Infectious Diseases Disease Notification Medical emergency business CRITICALLY-ILL PATIENTS Algorithms |
| Zdroj: | European Journal of Epidemiology, 26(3), 195-201. SPRINGER European Journal of Epidemiology European Journal of Epidemiology; Vol 26 |
| ISSN: | 0393-2990 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s10654-011-9566-5 |
| Popis: | During emerging epidemics of infectious diseases, it is vital to have up-to-date information on epidemic trends, such as incidence or health care demand, because hospitals and intensive care units have limited excess capacity. However, real-time tracking of epidemics is difficult, because of the inherent delay between onset of symptoms or hospitalizations, and reporting. We propose a robust algorithm to correct for reporting delays, using the observed distribution of reporting delays. We apply the algorithm to pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 hospitalizations as reported in the Netherlands. We show that the proposed algorithm is able to provide unbiased predictions of the actual number of hospitalizations in real-time during the ascent and descent of the epidemic. The real-time predictions of admissions are useful to adjust planning in hospitals to avoid exceeding their capacity. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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