Detecting deterrence from patrol data
Autor: | Colin M. Beale, Harriet Ibbett, E. J. Milner-Gulland, Aidan Keane, Andrew D. M. Dobson |
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Rok vydání: | 2018 |
Předmět: |
Conservation of Natural Resources
法律实施 Computer science Wildlife Animals Wild Context (language use) Computer security computer.software_genre Plot (graphics) 偷猎 Unit (housing) 丛林肉 Law Enforcement poaching Animals Deterrence theory 保护地 Enforcement carne silvestre wild meat conservation Law enforcement conservación Conservation Methods caza furtiva aplicación de la ley áreas protegidas carne de caza 野味 protected areas Metric (unit) bushmeat computer 保护 |
Zdroj: | Dobson, A, Milner-Gulland, E, Beale, C, Ibbett, H & Keane, A 2019, ' Detecting deterrence from patrol data ', Conservation biology, vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 665-675 . https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13222 Conservation Biology |
ISSN: | 0888-8892 |
Popis: | The threat posed to protected areas by the illegal killing of wildlife is countered principally by ranger patrols that aim to detect and deter potential offenders. Deterring poaching is a fundamental conservation objective, but its achievement is difficult to identify, especially when the prime source of information comes in the form of the patrols’ own records, which inevitably contain biases. The most common metric of deterrence is a plot of illegal activities detected per unit of patrol effort (CPUE) against patrol effort (CPUE‐E). We devised a simple, mechanistic model of law breaking and law enforcement in which we simulated deterrence alongside exogenous changes in the frequency of offences under different temporal patterns of enforcement effort. The CPUE‐E plots were not reliable indicators of deterrence. However, plots of change in CPUE over change in effort (ΔCPUE‐ΔE) reliably identified deterrence, regardless of the temporal distribution of effort or any exogenous change in illegal activity levels as long as the time lag between patrol effort and subsequent behavioral change among offenders was approximately known. The ΔCPUE‐ΔE plots offered a robust, simple metric for monitoring patrol effectiveness; were no more conceptually complicated than the basic CPUE‐E plots; and required no specialist knowledge or software to produce. Our findings demonstrate the need to account for temporal autocorrelation in patrol data and to consider appropriate (and poaching‐activity‐specific) intervals for aggregation. They also reveal important gaps in understanding of deterrence in this context, especially the mechanisms by which it occurs. In practical applications, we recommend the use of ΔCPUE‐ΔE plots in preference to other basic metrics and advise that deterrence should be suspected only if there is a clear negative slope. Distinct types of illegal activity should not be grouped together for analysis, especially if the signs of their occurrence have different persistence times in the environment. Article impact statement: Deterrent effects of conservation law enforcement may be robustly assessed by applying relatively simple metrics to ranger patrol data. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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