Combining Monte Carlo Simulation and Bayesian Networks Methods for Assessing Completion Time of Projects under Risk
| Autor: | Ali Namazian, Jolanta Tamošaitienė, Siamak Haji Yakhchali, Vahidreza Yousefi |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Risk analysis
Time Factors Computer science risk analysis Health Toxicology and Mutagenesis Monte Carlo method 0211 other engineering and technologies 02 engineering and technology project completion time Article risk interactions Extant taxon Order (exchange) 021105 building & construction 0502 economics and business Humans Computer Simulation Monte Carlo simulation Probability Structure (mathematical logic) Project success Construction Industry 05 social sciences Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Bayesian network Bayes Theorem Bayesian networks Risk analysis (engineering) Completion time Monte Carlo Method 050203 business & management |
| Zdroj: | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Volume 16 Issue 24 |
| ISSN: | 1660-4601 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/ijerph16245024 |
| Popis: | In this study, Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian network methods are combined to present a structure for assessing the aggregated impact of risks on the completion time of a construction project. Construction projects often encounter different risks which affect and prevent their desired completion at the predicted time and budget. The probability of construction project success is increased in the case of controlling influential risks. On the other hand, interactions among risks lead to the increase of aggregated impact of risks. This fact requires paying attention to assessment and management of project aggregated risk before and during the implementation phase. The developed structure of this article considers the interactions among risks to provide an indicator for estimating the effects of risks, so that the shortage of extant models including the lack of attention to estimate the aggregated impact caused by risks and the intensifying impacts can be evaluated. Moreover, the introduced structure is implemented in an industrial case study in order to validate the model, cover the functional aspect of the problem, and explain the procedure of structure implementation in detail. This article belongs to the Special Issue Occupational Safety and Risks in Construction |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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