Impacts of future climate and land cover changes on landslide susceptibility: regional scale modelling in the Val d’Aran region (Pyrenees, Spain)
| Autor: | Marcel Hürlimann, Càrol Puig-Polo, Zizheng Guo, Vicente Medina |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria Civil i Ambiental, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Màquines i Motors Tèrmics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. EnGeoModels - Monitoring and Modelling in Engineering Geology, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. EGEO - Enginyeria Geomàtica, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. CREMIT - Centre de Recerca de Motors i Instal·lacions Tèrmiques |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
| Předmět: |
Return period
Land use Physically based model Pyrenees Climate change Landslide Land cover Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Shallow slope failure Susceptibility Natural hazard Esllavissades -- Vall d'Aran (Catalunya) Environmental science Climate model Precipitation Physical geography Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Mecànica de sòls [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC] Landslides -- Spain Future environmental changes |
| Zdroj: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Popis: | The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10346-021-01775-6 It is widely accepted that future environmental changes will affect rainfall-induced shallow slides in high-mountain areas. In this study, the Val d’Aran region located in the Central Pyrenees was selected to analyze and quantify the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate changes on regional landslides susceptibility. We analyzed 26 climate models of the EURO-CORDEX database focussing on the future rainfall conditions. The IDRISI TerrSet software suite was used to create the future LULC maps. These two inputs were analyzed individually and in a combined way defining 20 different scenarios. All these scenarios were incorporated in a physically based stability model to compute landslides susceptibility maps. The results showed that both environmental conditions will considerably change in the future. The daily rainfall will increase between 14 and 26% assuming a return period of 100 years. This intensification of precipitation will produce an overall decrease of the stability condition in the study area. Regarding the LULC prediction, the forest area will significantly increase, while in particular grassland, but also shrubs decrease. As a consequence, the overall stability condition improves, because the root strength is higher in forest than in grassland and shrubs. When we analyzed the combined impacts, the results showed that the positive effect of LULC changes is larger than the negative influence of rainfall changes. Hence, when combining the two aspects in the future scenarios, the stability condition in the study area will improve. This study was funded by the national research project EROSLOP (PID2019-104266RBI00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) of the Spain Government. Zizheng Guo acknowledges the financial support of China Scholarship Council for his research at UPC BarcelonaTECH, and Fundamental Research Funds for National Universities, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan). |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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