An economy-wide evaluation of new power generation in South Africa: The case of Medupi and Kusile
| Autor: | Roula Inglesi-Lotz, Jan van Heerden, Jessika Bohlmann, Heinrich R. Bohlmann |
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| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Computable general equilibrium
Mains electricity Power station Project commissioning 020209 energy 02 engineering and technology 010501 environmental sciences Management Monitoring Policy and Law 01 natural sciences General Energy Electricity generation Economy Local economy 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Economics Production (economics) Baseline (configuration management) 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Energy Policy. 97:450-460 |
| ISSN: | 0301-4215 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.07.020 |
| Popis: | This paper investigates the role that the building of two new power stations, Medupi and Kusile, will play in facilitating future economic activity in South Africa. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the economy-wide effects of these new power stations. Our simulation results also provide insight into how much the local economy has lost due to inadequate electricity supply in the period leading up to the construction of Medupi and Kusile. We find that the decision to build additional power generation capacity was necessary and justified, and that the failure to sooner recognise the need for expansion of the country's electricity generation capacity and subsequent delays in commissioning Medupi and Kusile, likely cost the economy over R110bn in lost production. Additional analysis, in which a further two-year delay in the construction of Medupi and Kusile is simulated, shows that such an event will cause the economy to perform below baseline projections up to 2022. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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