Valuation of road projects with uncertain outcomes

Autor:	Michel Beuthe, Giuseppe Scannella
Rok vydání:	2003
Předmět:	Rate of return Actuarial science Cost–benefit analysis Operations research business.industry Process (engineering) media_common.quotation_subject Transportation Context (language use) Piecewise linear function Software Economics business Function (engineering) Valuation (finance) media_common
Zdroj:	Transport Reviews. 23:35-50
ISSN:	1464-5327 0144-1647
Popis:	This is a practical implementation of a multicriteria methodology developed to assess the risk involved in investment or policy projects. It is based on the specification of a non-linear, but piecewise linear, additive utility function, where the partial utility functions are specified as recursive exponential functions of only one curvature parameter. This allows for a reduction of the quantity of information necessary to build the utility function in a context of uncertainty. It is introduced in an aggregation model whereby the partial utility functions are built separately through a specific questioning process. The methodology is applied to the selection of road infrastructure projects of the Walloon Region in Belgium with several experts and civil servants from the Transport Ministry whose individual utility functions are derived. Software called MUSTARD is used, which stepwise and interactively helps the decision-makers to formulate the problem, build the criteria's distributions and state their preferences. The projects are ranked according to their rate of return computed on the basis of the projects' certain equivalent money values.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::f7539e63a10c9cb6d1894ff7c28b7a7b https://doi.org/10.1080/01441640309896 Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text ve formátu PDF