| Popis: |
Optimization problems, such as optimal well-spacing or completion design, can be resolved rapidly via surrogate proxy models, and these models can be built using either data-based or physics-based methods. Each approach has its strengths and weaknesses with respect to management of uncertainty, data quality or validation. This paper explores how data- and physics-based proxy models can be used together to create a workflow that combines the strengths of each approach and delivers an improved representation of the overall system. This paper presents use cases that display reduced simulation computational costs and/or reduced uncertainty in the outcomes of the models. A Bayesian calibration technique is used to improve predictability by combining numerical simulations with data regressions. Discrepancies between observations and surrogate outcomes are then observed to calibrate the model and improve the prediction quality and further reduce uncertainty. Furthermore, Gaussian Process Regression is used to locate global minima/maxima, with a minimal number of samples. To demonstrate the methodology, a reservoir model involving two wells in a drill space unit (DSU) in the Bakken Formation was constructed using publicly available data. This reservoir model was tuned by history matching the production data for the two wells. A data-based regression model was constructed based on machine learning technologies using the same dataset. Both models were coupled in a system to build a hybrid model to test the proposed process of data and physics coupling for completion optimization and uncertainty reduction. Subsequently, Gaussian Process Model was used to explore optimization scenarios outside of the data region of confidence and to exploit the hybrid model to further reduce uncertainty and prediction. Overall, both the computation time to identify optimal completion scenarios and uncertainty were reduced. This technique creates a robust framework to improve operational efficiency and drive completion optimization in an optimal timeframe. The hybrid modeling workflow has also been piloted in other applications such as completion design, well placement and optimization, parent-child well interference analysis, and well performance analysis. |
