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Statement of a problem. One of the main tasks today is to prevent accidents in complex systems, which requires determining their cause. In this regard, several theories and models of the causality of accidents are being developed. Traditional approaches to accident modeling are not sufficient for the analysis of accidents occurring in complex environments such as socio-technical systems, since an accident is not the result of individual component failure or human error. Therefore, we need more systematic methods for the investigation and modeling of accidents. Purpose. Conduct a comparative analysis of accident models in complex systems, identify the strengths and weaknesses of each of these models, and study the feasibility of their use in risk management in socio-technical systems. The paper analyzes the main approaches of accident modeling and their limitations in determining the cause-and-effect relationships and dynamics of modern complex systems. the methodologies to safety and accident models in sociotechnical systems based on systems theory are discussed. The complexity of sociotechnical systems requires new methodologies for modeling the development of emergency management. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the socio-technical system as a whole and to focus on the simultaneous consideration of the social and technical aspects of the systems. When modeling accidents, it is necessary to take into account the social structures and processes of social interaction, the cultural environment, individual characteristics of a person, such as their abilities and motivation, as well as the engineering design and technical aspects of systems. Practical importance. Based on analyzing various techniques for modeling accidents, as well as studying the examples used in modeling several previous accidents and review the results of this modeling, it is concluded that it is necessary to improve the modeling techniques. The result was the appearance of hybrid models of risk management in socio-technical systems, which we will consider in detail in our next work. |
