U.S. energy sector impacts of technology innovation, fuel price, and electric sector CO2 policy: Results from the EMF 32 model intercomparison study
| Autor: | Justin Caron, Stuart Cohen, Sharon Showalter, Felipe Feijoo, Elke L. Hodson, Marshall Wise, Frances Wood, Gokul Iyer, Maxwell Brown, Kathryne Cleary |
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| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Natural gas prices
Economics and Econometrics Natural resource economics business.industry 020209 energy 02 engineering and technology 010501 environmental sciences 01 natural sciences Energy policy Renewable energy General Energy Fuel gas Greenhouse gas 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Economics Electricity Electric power Energy source business 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Energy Economics. 73:352-370 |
| ISSN: | 0140-9883 |
| Popis: | We study the impact of fuel prices, technology innovation, and a CO 2 emissions reduction policy on both the electric power and end-use sectors by comparing outputs from four U.S. energy-economic models through the year 2050. Achieving innovation goals decreases CO 2 emissions in all models, regardless of natural gas price, due to increased energy efficiency and low-carbon generation becoming more cost competitive. For the models that include domestic natural gas markets, achieving innovation goals lowers wholesale electricity prices, but this effect diminishes as projected natural gas prices increase. Higher natural gas prices lead to higher wholesale electricity prices but fewer coal capacity retirements. A CO 2 electric power sector emissions cap influences electric sector evolution under reference technology assumptions but has little to no incremental influence when added to innovation goals. Long-term, meeting innovation goals achieves a generation mix with similar CO 2 emissions compared to the CO 2 policy but with smaller increases to wholesale electricity prices. In the short-term, the relative effect on wholesale prices differs by model. Finally, higher natural gas prices, achieving innovation goals, and the combination of the two, increases the amount of renewable generation that is cost-effective to build and operate while slowing the growth of natural-gas fired generation, which is the predominant generation type in 2050 under reference conditions. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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