Copula-based earthquake early warning decision-making strategy
| Autor: | Dian-Qing Li, Jui-pin Wang, Yih-Min Wu, Xiao-Song Tang |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Warning system Computer science Soil Science 010502 geochemistry & geophysics Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology 01 natural sciences Copula (probability theory) Joint probability distribution Frank copula Log-normal distribution Statistics 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Civil and Structural Engineering Weibull distribution |
| Zdroj: | Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering. 115:324-330 |
| ISSN: | 0267-7261 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.soildyn.2018.08.031 |
| Popis: | This paper presents a new copula-based earthquake early warning (EEW) decision-making strategy, aiming to characterize missed-alarm and false-alarm probabilities for an on-site EEW and determine an optimum threshold at which EEW should be set off with the lowest missed-alarm and false-alarm probabilities combined. On the basis of an existing PD3-PGV (PD3: peak ground displacement within the first three seconds after P-wave arrives; PGV: peak ground velocity) on-site EEW, the analysis shows that a copula model consisting of the Lognormal distribution, Weibull distribution, and Frank copula can satisfactorily model the PD3-PGV joint probability distribution. Accordingly, the optimum PD3 triggering thresholds for different PGV warning thresholds from 5 to 35 cm/s are presented for future references in the use of the PD3-PGV on-site EEW with maximum reliability. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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