A proposed convention for measuring the state of the art of products or processes
| Autor: | Thomas R. Munson, Theodore J. Gordon |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 1981 |
| Předmět: |
Mathematical optimization
Selection (relational algebra) Operations research Computer science Control (management) Value (computer science) Investment (macroeconomics) Measure (mathematics) Convention Management of Technology and Innovation State (computer science) Business and International Management Futures contract Applied Psychology |
| Zdroj: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 20:1-26 |
| ISSN: | 0040-1625 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/0040-1625(81)90038-x |
| Popis: | During 1980, The Futures Group performed a study under contract to the National Science Foundation to devise a convention for describing—in quantitative terms—technological state of the art of essential any technology. In designing this convention we hope that different analysts, working independently, would be able to arrive at a similar conclusion about the state of the art of a technology under study. With such a measure at hand, it would be possible, for example, to evaluate the effectiveness of investment in R&D by evaluating the improvement in the technological state of the art of a given technology, per unit investment. The form of the equation chosen for the state-of-the-art convention was SOA = K1(P1/P'1 + K2(P2/P'2) ⋯ Kn(Pn/P'n) where SOA = state of the art, Kn = the relative weight associated with each parameter describing the technology, Pn = the value of the particular parameter useful in describing the state of the art, and P'n = a reference value of the parameter. Various approaches to the selection of the parameters and their weights were described. Of particular interest is a statistical approach which assumes that the state of the art, over time, is an S-shaped curve. In this instance it is possible to compute the value of the weights through an iterative numerical technique. The convention was applied to two technologies: computers and antibiotics, and state-of-the-art measures were developed for each. In the case of antibiotics, selected organism/antibiotic pairs were analyzed to identify the state of the art of a particular antibiotic as applied to the control of a particular microorganism, over time. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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