The effect of climate change on groundwater level and its prediction using modern meta-heuristic model

Autor: Hassan Torabi Poudeh, Zohre Izadi, Reza Dehghani
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Groundwater for Sustainable Development. 16:100702
ISSN: 2352-801X
DOI: 10.1016/j.gsd.2021.100702
Popis: In recent years, climate change has led to the phenomenon of global warming and the ensuing depletion of groundwater resources. Therefore, to prevent the depletion of groundwater resources in a small number of plains, it is essential that simulation and forecasting of groundwater levels be conducted. In this study, in order to predict the groundwater level of Khorramabad plain located in Iran using 5 AOGCM models under RCP85 scenario, meteorological parameters were predicted and analyzed. Then, the performances of hybrid models including Black Widow Spider-Support Vector Regression (BWO-SVR), WSVR, and AIG-SVR in estimating the groundwater level of the plain were investigated and evaluated based on the parameters of temperature, precipitation, and abstraction from the aquifers during the statistical years of 2000-2020. Upon the application of the selected hybrid model, the groundwater level was predicted within the statistical years 2021-2040. According to the results of climate change modeling, compared to the base period, the temperature parameter in future periods in all months would experience an increasing trend (about 1.68-2.79 °C). The results showed that the studied models have better performance in the structure consisting of all input parameters. Also, the results of the evaluation index showed that the WSVR model has less error than other models. In general, the results of groundwater level forecasting show that in the coming years, groundwater level drop is predicted to be about 1-1.5 meters.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz: