Using Bayesian Updating to Improve Decisions under Uncertainty

Autor:	Brian T. McCann
Rok vydání:	2020
Předmět:	Strategy and Management
Zdroj:	California Management Review. 63:26-40
ISSN:	2162-8564 0008-1256
DOI:	10.1177/0008125620948264
Popis:	Decision making requires managers to constantly estimate the probability of uncertain outcomes and update those estimates in light of new information. This article provides guidance to managers on how they can improve that process by more explicitly adopting a Bayesian approach. Clear understanding and application of the Bayesian approach leads to more accurate probability estimates, resulting in better informed decisions. More importantly, adopting a Bayesian approach, even informally, promises to improve the quality of managerial thinking, analysis, and decisions in a variety of additional ways.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::93f1173be65a3291df936a851648f7cc https://doi.org/10.1177/0008125620948264 Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text ve formátu PDF Plný text ve formátu HTML
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