Sources of time-varying trade balance and real exchange rate dynamics in East Asia

Autor:	Sohrab Rafiq
Rok vydání:	2013
Předmět:	Economics and Econometrics Shock (economics) Exchange rate State dependent Political Science and International Relations Financial crisis Economics Balance of trade East Asia International economics Finance
Zdroj:	Journal of the Japanese and International Economies. 29:117-141
ISSN:	0889-1583
DOI:	10.1016/j.jjie.2013.06.001
Popis:	A sticky-price model with minimal assumptions for identification is used to motivate a time-varying model that allows for state dependent innovations to explore the trade balance dynamics of a group of East Asian economies. This paper shows that the correlation between the trade balance and the real exchange has historically been highly conditional on the type of macroeconomic shock. Permanent (transitory) shocks have historically produced a positive (negative) correlation between the trade balance and real exchange rate over the last 20 years. Second, since the Asian financial crisis the real exchange rate dynamics of the East Asian countries have been dominated by persistent component(s), while the dynamics of the trade balance have been more influenced by transitory factors.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::87ffabfb281be8a4dcf103f6b86b01be https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2013.06.001 Zobrazit plný text záznamu Full Text from ScienceDirect