Probabilities of future VEI ≥ 2 eruptions at the Central American Volcanic Arc: a statistical perspective based on the past centuries’ eruption record

Autor: Yvonne Dzierma, Heidi Wehrmann
Rok vydání: 2012
Předmět:
Zdroj: International Journal of Earth Sciences. 103:2029-2042
ISSN: 1437-3262
1437-3254
DOI: 10.1007/s00531-012-0803-2
Popis: A probabilistic eruption forecast is provided for seven historically active volcanoes along the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA), as a pivotal empirical contribution to multi-disciplinary volcanic hazards assessment. The eruption probabilities are determined with a Kaplan–Meier estimator of survival functions, and parametric time series models are applied to describe the historical eruption records. Aside from the volcanoes that are currently in a state of eruptive activity (Santa Maria, Fuego, and Arenal), the highest probabilities for eruptions of VEI ≥ 2 occur at Concepcion and Cerro Negro in Nicaragua, which are likely to erupt to 70–85 % within the next 10 years. Poas and Irazu in Costa Rica show a medium to high eruption probability, followed by San Miguel (El Salvador), Rincon de la Vieja (Costa Rica), and Izalco (El Salvador; 24 % within the next 10 years).
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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