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Probability of occurrence, hazard intensity and encounter probability are key parameters in the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of landslides. All are strongly dependent on magnitude of the landslides. As a result, magnitude–frequency analysis should be a part of QRA. Deriving representative magnitude–frequency relationships for debris avalanches and debris flows, however, is difficult. One key problem is illustrated with the example of a unique database from the coastal region of British Columbia, Canada, which was compiled entirely from detailed ground investigations. The magnitude of debris avalanches and debris flows is not an independent statistical quantity, but a function of the scale of a given slope, as characterized by the slope length. Thus, attempting to derive probability and magnitude for a given location or sub-region from a regionally-derived magnitude–frequency curve may lead to incorrect predictions. The same problem is pertinent to the application of the same approach to any type of landslide in which the largest combined dimension of the source volume (including entrainment) is of the same order as the length of the slope. It is recommended that greater emphasis be placed on site-specific geological observations, at the expense of generalized statistics. |
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