| Popis: |
In this paper, we present a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza model with Saturated Contact rate. We assume that human can only contact HPAI by direct contact with infected birds. A mathematical model consisting of ordinary differential equations has been proposed in order to analyze / determine time evolution of susceptible birds and infected birds. Analysis based on the model shows that the population of domestic birds can be made secured against infection by proper vaccination and proper removal of infected birds. During the study the basic reproduction number of the model was calculated and the following conclusion was made. If R0< 1, disease - free equilibrium is stable, the disease will die out; if however, R0>1, there exists an endemic equilibrium which is stable, Avian Influenza will spread. |
