Bayesian Monte Carlo method
| Autor: | Mohammadreza Rajabalinejad |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2010 |
| Předmět: |
Engineering
business.industry Reliability (computer networking) Monte Carlo method Bayesian probability Process (computing) Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering Finite element method TheoryofComputation_MATHEMATICALLOGICANDFORMALLANGUAGES Computer Science::Logic in Computer Science Prior probability Statistics Safety Risk Reliability and Quality business Dynamic method Algorithm Prior information Hardware_LOGICDESIGN |
| Zdroj: | Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 95:1050-1060 |
| ISSN: | 0951-8320 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ress.2010.04.014 |
| Popis: | To reduce cost of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for time-consuming processes, Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) is introduced in this paper. The BMC method reduces number of realizations in MC according to the desired accuracy level. BMC also provides a possibility of considering more priors. In other words, different priors can be integrated into one model by using BMC to further reduce cost of simulations. This study suggests speeding up the simulation process by considering the logical dependence of neighboring points as prior information. This information is used in the BMC method to produce a predictive tool through the simulation process. The general methodology and algorithm of BMC method are presented in this paper. The BMC method is applied to the simplified break water model as well as the finite element model of 17th Street Canal in New Orleans, and the results are compared with the MC and Dynamic Bounds methods. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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