| Popis: |
Global climate change and more frequent and severe compound events poses a threat to agricultural productivity in China with important impacts on human development, and social stability. China has 18% about 25% of the world's grain production--accounting rice up to 34% of it. Much of the existing research has focused on the important average effects of climate warming on rice yields showing. However, there is evidence about nonlinear interactions when compound events being present (ie. frost and heavy rainfall). As some of the major natural disasters in China at present, the overall spatial extent of drought and floods in China are expected to change significantly in the future, with more extreme events resulting. This paper analyzes total factor productivity growth in China's rice production to compute technological progress as an adaptative factor for total factor productivity growth response to compound extreme events. Labor inputs, education, fertilizer application and energy use are considered as control factors, jointly with socio-economic factors the the adoption of agricultural technology by growers. The Levinsohn-Petrin consistent semi-parametric estimation method was used to empirically analyze input-output panel data on rice yields in 30 Chinese provinces from 1990 to 2019 and to simulate the level of rice yield at the end of the 21st century under different RCPs scenarios. The model has stronger prediction ability for the central-eastern and southern production areas of China and reveals that rice yields may show opportunities of increase under average conditions for some climate scenarios, but it shows a bigger risk and vulnerability to compound extreme events. |
