Modelling for Insight: The Case of Dementia in Singapore
| Autor: | Robert L. Eberlein, Crystal M. Riley, James P. Thompson |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2013 |
| Předmět: |
Gerontology
education.field_of_study Information Systems and Management business.industry Strategy and Management Incidence (epidemiology) Population General Social Sciences Census medicine.disease Natural history of disease Natural history Severe dementia Health care medicine Dementia business education Psychology |
| Zdroj: | Systems Research and Behavioral Science. 31:227-235 |
| ISSN: | 1092-7026 |
| DOI: | 10.1002/sres.2202 |
| Popis: | Many nations have rapidly ageing populations and consequently face important health care policy issues, including a need to address the care and treatment of individuals afflicted with ageing-related dementia. To help inform policymakers in Singapore concerned with dementia, we constructed a system dynamics model that represents changing population characteristics, incidence and prevalence of dementia, and a population-level natural history of this pernicious condition. In the model-building process, we encountered an unexpected simulation outcome that led to valuable insights. This article (i) describes how a difference between measured census data and the simulated population led to improvements in our population modelling, (ii) introduces a novel and generalizable means to simulate how the prevalence of mild, moderate, and severe dementia is likely to change over the next 20 years, and (iii) provides a comparison between two means of prevalence projection. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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