Comparative Analysis of Innovation Diffusion Models: Empirical Results and Predictive Performance on Russian Mobile Phone Propagation Data

Autor:	Alexey Faizliev, Sergei P. Sidorov, Vladimir Balash, Olga Balash, Maria Krylova
Rok vydání:	2020
Předmět:	History business.industry Computer science Mobile phone Innovation diffusion Telecommunications business Computer Science Applications Education
Zdroj:	Journal of Physics: Conference Series. 1564:012027
ISSN:	1742-6596 1742-6588
DOI:	10.1088/1742-6596/1564/1/012027
Popis:	This article introduces a new model that describes the innovation diffusion and is an extension of the well-known logistic model to the case when a diffusion process has a more complex structure. Time series data of mobile phone subscribers for Russian Federation during 2000-2018 are examined to compare the performance of the proposed model with the well-known innovation diffusion models (the Gompertz, Logistic, Bass models) and the time-series autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, one of the most popular forecasting models. Empirical results show that the extended logistic model outperforms the other models and the proposed model has the best characteristics on real data for the Russian mobile communications market.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::1bcd61ea30bdcbd9887e57fbfcd696c9 https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1564/1/012027 Zobrazit plný text záznamu