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Uma abordagem mais didatica foi aplicada na deteccao e atribuicao das anomalias anuais dos indices de extremos de chuva (R99p, CWD, CDD) e de temperaturas maxima (TXx, WSDI) e minima (TNn, CSDI) sobre o litoral centro-norte do Estado de Sao Paulo durante 1981-2017. Na deteccao, as anomalias do CWD apresentaram variacao linear quase nula, mas ligeiramente negativa enquanto as demais tiveram tendencias lineares com confiabilidade maior ou igual a 90%, negativas para o R99p e CSDI e positivas para o CDD, TXx, WSDI e TNn. A variabilidade interanual juntamente com a tendencia linear contribuiu com os maiores anomalias quando comparado a influencia apenas da variabilidade interanual: antes do ano de 2000 (R99p e CSDI) e 2003 (CWD) bem como depois de 1999 (TXx e TNn) e 2001 (CDD e WSDI). Na atribuicao, com excecao da tendencia das anomalias do CWD, todas demais tiveram dependencia estatisticamente significativa com a tendencia linear positiva de aquecimento do globo: fraca e inversa (R99p), fraca e direta (TNn), moderada e inversa (CSDI) e moderada e direta (CDD, TXx, WSDI). Adicionalmente, a analise espacial atraves da tecnica de composicoes mostrou que nos dias de ocorrencia das anomalias dos indices houve alteracoes na temperatura da superficie do mar em latitudes tropicais dos Oceanos Pacifico e Atlântico Norte associadas a desvios nos ventos alisios nessas regioes, e no Oceano Atlântico Sudoeste devido a persistencia de circulacoes barotropicas equivalente pela influencia remota de ondas de Rossby. Consequentemente, as anomalias do R99p, CWD, TXx e WSDI foram associadas a intensificacao dos ventos que aumentaram o transporte de ar tropical quente e umido para o litoral do Sudeste do Brasil. Enquanto que, as anomalias do CDD, TNn e CSDI foram influenciadas pela reversao das direcoes desses ventos seguida da entrada de ar seco e frio sobre a regiao de estudo. Detection and attribution of annual anomalies of extreme rainfall indices and daily maximum and minimum temperatures over the coast of Sao Paulo/Brazil* A B S T R A C T A more didactic approach was applied in the detection and attribution of the annual anomalies of precipitation (R99p, CWD, CDD) and maximum (TXx, WSDI) and minimum temperatures (TNn, CSDI) extremes indices over the central-north coast of the State of Sao Paulo during 1981-2017. Regarding detection, the CWD anomalies showed almost zero linear variation, but slightly negative while the others had linear trends with a reliability greater than or equal to 90%, negative for R99p and CSDI and positive for CDD, TXx, WSDI and TNn. The interannual variability together with the linear trend contributed with the largest anomalies, in module, when compared to the influence of interannual variability only: before 2000 (for the R99p and CSDI) and 2003 (for the CWD) as well as after 1999 (for the TXx and TNn) and 2001 (for the CDD and WSDI). For the attribution, with the exception of the trend of CWD anomalies, all others had dependency statistically significant with the positive linear trend of global warming: weak and inverse (R99p), weak and direct (TNn), moderate and inverse (CSDI) and moderate and direct (CDD, TXx, WSDI). Additionally, the spatial analysis through the composition technique showed that during the days of the occurrence of the anomalies of the indices there were deviations in sea surface temperature over the tropical latitudes over the Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans associated with anomalies in trade winds in these regions, and over the Southwest Atlantic Ocean due the persistence of equivalent-barotropic circulations in response to the remote influence of Rossby waves. Consequently, the anomalies of the R99p, CWD, TXx and WSDI were associated with the intensification of the winds that increased the transport of warm and moist tropical air to the coast of Southeast Brazil. On the other hand, the anomalies of the CDD, TNn and CSDI were influenced by reversion of the directions of these winds followed by the incursion of dry and cold air over the study region. Keywords: attribution, detection, extremes, linear tendency, natural variability. |
