| Autor: |
Stöckl, Heidi, Anwari, Palwasha, Agrawal, Sutapa, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Kim, Daniel, Graetz, Nicholas, Ali, Raghib, Jonas, Jost B., Gibney, Katherine B., Coresh, Josef, Kaul, Anil, Majdzadeh, Reza, Franklin, Richard C., Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane, Silva, João Pedro, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Kuipers, Ernst J., Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile, Massano, João, Saxena, Sonia, Yip, Paul, Majdan, Marek, Perez-Ruiz, Fernando, Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline, Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho, Kadel, Rajendra, Soriano, Joan B., Hambisa, Mitiku Teshome, Tuzcu, Emin Murat, Karch, André, Ciobanu, Liliana G., Esteghamati, Alireza, Pourmalek, Farshad, Martinez-Raga, Jose, Kibret, Getiye Dejenu, Das Neves, José, Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores, Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Baune, Bernhard T., Mazidi, Mohsen, Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina, Gesesew, Hailay Abrha, Gillum, Richard F., Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan, Karthikeyan, Ganesan, Silberberg, Donald H., Kishawi, Sami, Rawaf, Salman, Resnikoff, Serge, Allebeck, Peter, Bärnighausen, Till, Bennett, James R., Tarajia, Musharaf, Chibalabala, Mirriam, Barregard, Lars, Cirillo, Massimo, Alahdab, Fares, McGrath, John J., Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Petri, William Arthur, Lachat, Carl, Sagar, Rajesh, Zeeb, Hajo, Alsharif, Ubai, Deribew, Amare, Herteliu, Claudiu, Xu, Gelin, Patel, Tejas, Ding, Eric L., Shibuya, Kenji, Davey, Gail, Misganaw, Awoke, Tekle, Dejen Yemane, Schwendicke, Falk, Barrero, Lope H., Mekonnen, Tefera Chane, Leigh, James, Lee, Paul H., Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Bell, Michelle L., Car, Josip, Balalla, Shivanthi, Pishgar, Farhad, Kastor, Anshul, Feigin, Valery L., Dubey, Manisha, Uthman, Olalekan A., Gupta, Rajeev, Alkaabi, Juma M., Nachega, Jean B., Mantovani, Lorenzo G., Sharma, Jayendra, Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh, Lipshultz, Steven E., Bhala, Neeraj, Mohammadi, Alireza, Menon, Geetha R., Sobaih, Badr H.A., Abu-Raddad, Laith J., Kamal, Ritul, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Vollset, Stein Emil, Barac, Aleksandra, Vasankari, Tommi, Lorch, Scott A., Meier, Toni, Vladimirov, Sergey K., Rubagotti, Enrico, Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo, Horita, Nobuyuki, Polinder, Suzanne, Woldeyes, Belete Getahun, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales, Kim, Pauline, Bisanzio, Donal, Dandona, Rakhi, Fanuel, Fanuel Belayneh Bekele, Johnson, Sarah Charlotte, Lansingh, Van C., Larsson, Anders, Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein, Mooney, Meghan D., Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana, Genova-Maleras, Ricard, Liben, Misgan Legesse, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Laryea, Dennis Odai, Deribe, Kebede, Shigematsu, Mika, Jensen, Paul N., Brenner, Hermann, Nong, Vuong Minh, Nagel, Gabriele, Gambashidze, Ketevan, Stein, Dan J., Gona, Philimon N., Htet, Aung Soe, Geleijnse, Johanna M., Dandona, Lalit, Shiue, Ivy, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan, Bumgarner, Blair Randal, Skiadaresi, Eirini, Okoro, Anselm, Frank, Tahvi, Irvine, Caleb M.S., Asayesh, Hamid, Mackay, Mark T., Kahsay, Amaha, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Mokdad, Ali H., Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Park, Eun-Kee, Pereira, David M., Satpathy, Maheswar, Yan, Lijing L., Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto, Islam, Nazrul, Djalalinia, Shirin, Donnelly, Christl Ann, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Topor-Madry, Roman, Yirsaw, Biruck Desalegn, Bacha, Umar, Rajsic, Sasa, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Varughese, Santosh, Alla, François, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Kabir, Zubair, Tekelab, Tesfalidet, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Afshin, Ashkan, Lodha, Rakesh, Duncan, Bruce Bartholow, Lotufo, Paulo A., Endries, Aman Yesuf, Nomura, Marika, Gupta, Vipin, Nguyen, Quyen Le, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Sanabria, Juan Ramon, Ameh, Emmanuel A., Swaminathan, Soumya, Popova, Svetlana, Krohn, Kristopher J., Anber, Nahla, Martin, Elena Alvarez, Seid, Abdulbasit Musa, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki, Thomson, Alan J., Rezaei, Satar, Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Carpenter, David O., Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Douwes-Schultz, Dirk, Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. Chudi, Noubiap, Jean Jacques N., Sur, Patrick J., Mohammed, Kedir Endris, Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King, Farzadfar, Farshad, Aichour, Ibthiel, Hammami, Mouhanad, Gemechu, Kasiye Shiferaw, Hareri, Habtamu Abera, Hao, Yuantao, Dos Santos, Kadine Priscila Bender, Nguyen, Grant, Hostiuc, Sorin, Sligar, Amber, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Safdarian, Mahdi, Brazinova, Alexandra, Rabiee, Rynaz H.S., Sahathevan, Ramesh, Cromwell, Elizabeth A., Olagunju, Andrew Toyin, Perico, Norberto, Renzaho, Andre M.N.N., Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin, Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rana, Saleem M., Bensenor, Isabela M., Pervaiz, Aslam, Ronfani, Luca, Weintraub, Robert G., Zhang, Anthony Lin, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Strong, Mark, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio, Kissoon, Niranjan, Mills, Edward J., Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Li, Yongmei, Mehta, Kala M., Thrift, Amanda G., Moore, Ami R., Driscoll, Tim R., Poulton, Richie G., Yalew, Ayalnesh Zemene, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Castro, Franz F., Yotebieng, Marcel, Pakhale, Smita, Kulkarni, Veena S., Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash, Machado, Isis Eloah, Malekzadeh, Reza, Silpakit, Naris, Hosgood, H. Dean, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L., Marczak, Laurie B., Gebrekidan, Kahsu Gebrekirstos, Javanbakht, Mehdi, Carrero, Juan Jesus, Montañez Hernandez, Julio Cesar, Foreman, Kyle J., Hamidi, Samer, Pana, Adrian, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Zodpey, Sanjay, Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan, Estep, Kara, Ketema, Ezra Belay, Mirarefin, Mojde, Karimi, Seyed M., Sahebkar, Amirhossein, Akanda, Ali Shafqat, Murthy, Srinivas, Ellingsen, Christian Lycke, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna A., Kassaw, Nigussie Assefa, Nascimento, Bruno Ramos, Micha, Renata, Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna, Meretoja, Atte, Amare, Azmeraw T., Piel, Frédéric B., Norrving, Bo, Wang, Haidong, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Leung, Ricky, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Levi, Miriam, Undurraga, Eduardo A., Menota, Bereket Gebremichael, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Mahdavi, Mahdi, Allam, Shalini D., Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves, Tadese, Fentaw, Soneji, Samir, Weichenthal, Scott, Doku, David Teye, Gill, Paramjit Singh, Varakin, Yuri Y., Deiparine, Selina, Barquera, Simon, Mahesh, Foigt, Nataliya, Saylan, Mete I., Shiri, Rahman, Van Boven, Job F.M., Des Jarlais, Don C., Dwivedi, Laxmi Kant, Gupta, Tanush, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Kelbore, Sefonias Getachew, Dherani, Mukesh K., Lalloo, Ratilal, Artaman, Al, Davletov, Kairat, Kutz, Michael, Mollenkopf, Sarah K., Haagsma, Juanita A., Salamati, Payman, Yaghoubi, Mohsen, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, De Courten, Barbora, Wilkinson, James D., Suliankatchi, Rizwan Abdulkader, Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale, Assadi, Reza, Sunguya, Bruno F., Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine, Schneider, Ione J.C., Oh, In-Hwan, Shackelford, Katya Anne, Nangia, Vinay, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Cahill, Leah E., Yimam, Hassen Hamid, Bourne, Rupert R.A., Tesema, Cheru Leshargie, Mullany, Erin, Salvi, Sundeep Santosh, Aljunid, Syed M., Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Fürst, Thomas, Davitoiu, Dragos V., Montico, Marcella, Stokes, Mark Andrew, Hay, Simon I., Hoek, Hans W., Sabde, Yogesh Damodar, Cárdenas, Rosario, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Kemp, Andrew Haddon, Liao, Yu, Ota, Erika, Hay, Roderick J., Leung, Janni, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Boufous, Soufiane, Irenso, Asnake Ararsa, Khera, Sahil, Smith, David L., Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe, Mehata, Suresh, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Tiruye, Tenaw Yimer, Patton, George C., Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Mohanty, Sanjay K., Temam Shifa, Girma, Ye, Pengpeng, Oren, Eyal, Plass, Dietrich, Mohan, Murali B.V., Rokni, Mohammad Bagher, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Khan, Gulfaraz, Degenhardt, Louisa, Frostad, Joseph J., Alam, Khurshid, Nagata, Chie, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Filip, Irina, Radfar, Amir, Dellavalle, Robert P., Kopec, Jacek A., Hotez, Peter J., Gemechu, Bikila Lencha, Babalola, Tesleem Kayode, Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam, McAlinden, Colm, Waid, Jillian L., Majeed, Azeem, Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz, Morrison, Shane D., Owolabi, Mayowa O., Knudsen, Ann Kristin, Singh, Abhishek, Amini, Erfan, Criqui, Michael H., Singh, Prashant Kumar, Topouzis, Fotis, Shetty, Balakrishna P., Kieling, Christian, Boneya, Dube Jara, Bennett, Derrick A., Meretoja, Tuomo J., Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Zaidi, Zoubida, Petzold, Max, Abbafati, Cristiana, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Maulik, Pallab K., Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Lager, Anton Carl Jonas, Lim, Stephen S., Jha, Vivekanand, Mendoza, Walter, Igumbor, Ehimario Uche, Singh, Jasvinder A., Sharma, Rajesh, Harb, Hilda L., Bhaumik, Soumyadeep, Salama, Joseph, Kivimaki, Mika, Lagat, Abraham K., Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Dargan, Paul I., Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew, Alam, Noore, Lan, Qing, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Biryukov, Stan, Purwar, Manorama, Younis, Mustafa Z., Workie, Shimelash Bitew, Qorbani, Mostafa, Fernandes, Jefferson G., Androudi, Sofia, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Schmidt, Maria Inês, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai, Carter, Austin, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Wijeratne, Tissa, Lorkowski, Stefan, Inoue, Manami, Kan, Haidong, Gupta, Prakash C., Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Beuran, Mircea, Shen, Jiabin, Keren, Andre, Arora, Megha, Berhe, Derbew Fikadu, Futran, Neal D., Gebremichael, Mengistu Welday, Shaheen, Amira, Mensah, George A., Safi, Sare, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Bernabé, Eduardo, Sindi, Shireen, Bukhman, Gene, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Perez-Padilla, Rogelio, Moraga, Paula, Seedat, Soraya, Schwebel, David C., Asghar, Rana Jawad, Steiner, Caitlyn, Shamsipour, Mansour, Jahanmehr, Nader, Kravchenko, Michael, Nguyen, Cuong Tat, Akinyemiju, Tomi F., Hilawe, Esayas Haregot, Faro, André, Manyazewal, Tsegahun, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Singh, Virendra, Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O., Kumar, G. Anil, Phillips, Michael Robert, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Khoja, Abdullah Tawfih Abdullah, Monasta, Lorenzo, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Bjerregaard, Peter, Negoi, Ionut, Moreno Velasquez, Ilais, Workicho, Abdulhalik, Kumsa, Fekede Asefa, Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf, Fernandes, João C., Brugha, Traolach S., Hoy, Damian G., Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Panda, Basant Kumar, Minnig, Shawn, Safiri, Saeid, Rego, Maria Albertina Santiago, Giref, Ababi Zergaw, Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel, Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Bhansali, Anil, Gething, Peter W., Barber, Ryan M., Zhang, Xueying, Kim, Yun Jin, Ruhago, George Mugambage, Samy, Abdallah M., Bedi, Neeraj, Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron, Kosen, Soewarta, Mapoma, Chabila C., Agrawal, Anurag, Ortiz, Alberto, Burch, Michael, Barboza, Miguel A., Naidoo, Kovin S., McGarvey, Stephen Theodore, Sachdev, Perminder S., Aldridge, Robert William, Awasthi, Ashish, Lambert, Nkurunziza, Mori, Rintaro, Tran, Bach Xuan, Reiner, Robert C., Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh, Thomas, Nihal, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Prasad, Narayan, Ram, Usha, Yano, Yuichiro, Roth, Gregory A., Miller, Ted R., Thompson, Alex H., Badawi, Alaa, Malhotra, Rajesh, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Jaenisch, Thomas, Dharmaratne, Samath D., Rehm, Jürgen, Salomon, Joshua A., Theis, Andrew, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E., Lavados, Pablo M., Pesudovs, Konrad, Mengesha, Melkamu Merid, Saadat, Soheil, Ansari, Hossein, Alasfoor, Deena, Furtado, Joao M., Butt, Zahid A., Aggarwal, Rakesh, Haro, Josep Maria, Tesssema, Belay, Paudel, Deepak, Rao, Paturi Vishnupriya, Birungi, Charles, Santos, Itamar S., Yakob, Bereket, Sartorius, Benn, Vishnu, Abhishek, Koyanagi, Ai, El Bcheraoui, Charbel, Shahraz, Saeid, Nanda, Lipika, Beghi, Ettore, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M., Tuem, Kald Beshir, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Do, Huyen Phuc, Wang, Yuan-Pang, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Vos, Theo, Peterson, Carrie Beth, Rafay, Anwar, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Hancock, Jamie, Silva, Diego Augusto Santos, Zerfu, Taddese Alemu, Abd-Allah, Foad, McKee, Martin, Ribeiro, Antonio L., Giussani, Giorgia, Linn, Shai, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Xavier, Denis, Wolfe, Charles D.A., Nisar, Muhammad Imran, Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Dixit, Priyanka, Akseer, Nadia, Murray, Christopher J.L., Gelaye, Amha Admasie, Duan, Leilei, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal, Girma, Bedilu Weji, Sadat, Nafis, Laxmaiah, Avula, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Nguyen, Trang Huyen, Larson, Heidi J., Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Santric Milicevic, Milena M., Fullman, Nancy, Vidavalur, Ramesh, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L., Werdecker, Andrea, Tanne, David, Molokhia, Mariam, De Leo, Diego, John, Oommen, Halasa, Yara A., Kim, Cho-Il, Kereselidze, Maia, Eshrati, Babak, Berhane, Adugnaw, Naghavi, Mohsen, Lozano, Rafael, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Gomez, Beatriz, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Kumar, Pushpendra, John, Denny, Hsairi, Mohamed, Marks, Guy B., Khader, Yousef Saleh, Koul, Parvaiz A., Khang, Young-Ho, Servan-Mori, Edson E., Goenka, Shifalika, Patten, Scott B., Farvid, Maryam S., Fischer, Florian, Benson, Jennifer, Blosser, Christopher D., Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Kalkonde, Yogeshwar, Wesana, Joshua, Steel, Nicholas, Alabed, Samer, Ärnlöv, Johan, Kawakami, Norito, Memish, Ziad A., Huang, John J., Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Fraser, Maya, Violante, Francesco S., Mruts, Kalayu Birhane, Tsilimparis, Nikolaos, O'Donnell, Martin J., Al Lami, Faris Hasan, Jürisson, Mikk, Mengistie, Mubarek Abera, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B., Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, Sinha, Dhirendra Narain, Molla Assaye, Ashagre, Mohammed, Shafiu, Ma, Stefan, Friedman, Joseph, Goulart, Alessandra Carvalho, Lyons, Ronan A., Sawhney, Monika, Bello, Aminu K., Chitheer, Abdulaal A., Gupta, Rahul, Bikbov, Boris, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Yoon, Seok-Jun, Alhabib, Samia, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Dey, Subhojit, Yaseri, Mehdi, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Postma, Maarten J., Shi, Peilin, Aiyar, Sneha, Pacella, Rosana E., Hankey, Graeme J., Sykes, Bryan L., Kengne, Andre Pascal, Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos, Mayosi, Bongani M., Lopez, Alan D., Kasaeian, Amir, Handal, Alexis J., Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Eshetie, Setegn, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Mueller, Ulrich O., Tortajada, Miguel, Schutte, Aletta E., Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas, Szoeke, Cassandra E.I., Mishra, Shiva Raj, Breitborde, Nicholas J.K., Abera, Semaw Ferede, Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie, Gamkrelidze, Amiran, Car, Mate, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Diaz-Torné, Cesar, Hakuzimana, Alex, Shrime, Mark G., Taveira, Nuno, Trujillo, Ulises, Sobngwi, Eugene, Khalil, Ibrahim A., Béjot, Yannick, Tonelli, Marcello, Christensen, Hanne, Truelsen, Thomas, Morawska, Lidia, Kim, Sungroul, Ray, Sarah E., Tandon, Nikhil, Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kimokoti, Ruth W., Mikesell, Joseph, Oladimeji, Olanrewaju, Muller, Kate, Jin, Ye, Ammar, Walid, Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Colquhoun, Samantha M., Altirkawi, Khalid A., Crump, John A., Hu, Guoqing, Roy, Ambuj, Abbas, Kaja M., Tyrovolas, Stefanos, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Wakayo, Tolassa, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Temsah, Mohamad-Hani, Huang, Hsiang, Kazanjan, Konstantin, Norheim, Ole F., Kinfu, Yohannes, Gakidou, Emmanuela, He, Fei, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa, Srinivasan, Vinay, Enayati, Ahmadali, Memiah, Peter, Pigott, David M., Atre, Sachin R., Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Chen, Honglei, Cohen, Aaron J., Parsaeian, Mahboubeh, Liu, Shiwei, She, Jun |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Předmět: |
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| Popis: |
BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
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