Effects of climate change and horticultural use on the spread of naturalized alien garden plants in Europe

Autor: Klonner, Günther, Wessely, Johannes, Gattringer, Andreas, Moser, Dietmar, Dullinger, Iwona, Hülber, Karl, Rumpf, Sabine B., Block, Svenja, Bossdorf, Oliver, Carboni, Marta, Conti, Luisa, Dawson, Wayne, Haeuser, Emily, Hermy, Martin, Münkemüller, Tamara, Parepa, Madalin, Thuiller, Wilfried, Van der Veken, Sebastiaan, Verheyen, Kris, van Kleunen, Mark, Essl, Franz, Dullinger, Stefan
Přispěvatelé: Universität Wien, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA ), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Università degli Studi Roma Tre, Department of Ecology [Warsaw], Institute of Zoology [Warsaw], Faculty of Biology [Warsaw], University of Warsaw (UW)-University of Warsaw (UW)-Faculty of Biology [Warsaw], University of Warsaw (UW)-University of Warsaw (UW), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Klonner, G., Wessely, J., Gattringer, A., Moser, D., Dullinger, I., Hulber, K., Rumpf, S. B., Block, S., Bossdorf, O., Carboni, M., Conti, L., Dawson, W., Haeuser, E., Hermy, M., Munkemuller, T., Parepa, M., Thuiller, W., Van der Veken, S., Verheyen, K., van Kleunen, M., Essl, F., Dullinger, S.
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
Zdroj: Ecography
Ecography, Wiley, 2019, 42 (9), pp.1548-1557. ⟨10.1111/ecog.04389⟩
Ecography, 2019, Vol.42(9), pp.1548-1557 [Peer Reviewed Journal]
ECOGRAPHY
ISSN: 0906-7590
1600-0587
DOI: 10.1111/ecog.04389⟩
Popis: International audience; Climate warming is supposed to enlarge the area climatically suitable to the naturalization of alien garden plants in temperate regions. However, the effects of a changing climate on the spread of naturalized ornamentals have not been evaluated by spatially and temporarily explicit range modelling at larger scales so far. Here, we assess how climate change and the frequency of cultivation interactively determine the spread of 15 ornamental plants over the 21st century in Europe. We coupled species distribution modelling with simulations of demography and dispersal to predict range dynamics of these species in annual steps across a 250 x 250 m raster of the study area. Models were run under four scenarios of climate warming and six levels of cultivation intensity. Cultivation frequency was implemented as size of the area used for planting a species. Although the area climatically suitable to the 15 species increases, on average, the area predicted to be occupied by them in 2090 shrinks under two of the three climate change scenarios. This contradiction obviously arises from dispersal limitations that were pronounced although we assumed that cultivation is spatially adapting to the changing climate. Cultivation frequency had a much stronger effect on species spread than climate change, and this effect was non-linear. The area occupied increased sharply from low to moderate levels of cultivation intensity, but levelled off afterwards. Our simulations suggest that climate warming will not necessarily foster the spread of alien garden plants in Europe over the next decades. However, climatically suitable areas do increase and hence an invasion debt is likely accumulating. Restricting cultivation of species can be effective in preventing species spread, irrespective of how the climate develops. However, for being successful, they depend on high levels of compliance to keep propagule pressure at a low level.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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