| Autor: |
Frevert, D. K., Cowan, M. S., Lane, W. L., Frevert, D. K., Cowan, M. S., Lane, W. L. |
| Zdroj: |
Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering; June 1989, Vol. 115 Issue: 3 p334-343, 10p |
| Abstrakt: |
Intelligent operation of a complex reservoir system requires that the most current mathematical techniques be incorporated into the decisionmaking process. One such technique is stochastic hydrology and, in particular, the use of a number of stochastically generated sequences or traces to provide a broader basis for management decisions during drought periods. This paper presents a case study illustrating the use of this approach by the Bureau of Reclamation in management of the Central Valley Project in California. A series of twenty 1,000yr stochastic traces for the Sacramento River Basin was generated using Reclamation's LAST Lane's applied stochastic techniques computer package, The package is described in Lane and Frevert 1988. Each trace was compared to an historically based natural flow sequence and was found to preserve adequately key statistical properties. The traces were then analyzed by use of a computer program which counted the number of occurrences of a flow below a specified level over 1 through 10yr intervals. Results for the twenty 1,000yr traces provided a much more objective estimate of nonexceedance probabilities for these low flows than might have been obtained by simply plotting the computed natural flows corresponding to the historic record itself. |
| Databáze: |
Supplemental Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
