| Abstrakt: |
The drastic increase in territorial disintegration from the White Lotus Rebellion to the Taiping Rebellion in the first half of the 19th century in Qing China (1644-1911) is examined by using Goldstone's demographic-structural model. Since the drastic increase followed a period of economic prosperity and military success in the 18th century, this paper examines whether history will repeat itself in the China as it enjoys growing economic prosperity and international prestige. In order for Goldstone's model to be applicable in the contemporary case, it is argued that the cultural element needs to be incorporated as one of the dimensions of population pressure and conceptualized as a variable. Using this modified conceptualization of population dynamic, the likely sources of rising population pressure in China is examined. Factors that will potentially hinder the economy's ability to adjust adequately to rising population pressure are also examine, with special emphasis on how water crisis will dampen economic growth in China. The combination of rising population pressure and stalled economic growth can be destabilizing for China in the future, especially if the Chinese state is unable to handle the accompanying political and fiscal problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
