| Abstrakt: |
This study was aimed at analyzing the Brent Crude Oil Price Per Barrel. The data was extracted from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Bulletin and it covered the period of January 1985 to September 2016. The Box and Jenkins approach of model identification, parameter estimation and diagnostic checking was adopted in the analysis with the aid of S-plus Package. In view of the above problem, this research was set to: explore and explain the behavior of the series; determine the best model; and forecast future values of the series. With the aid of S-Plus programming ware, R language ware; ARIMA (2,1,2) (2,0,0) [12] was reached as an optimum and parsimonious model for the series. An arithmetic increase in the price was forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
