| Abstrakt: |
Enhancing ecological resilience stands as a crucial pillar in ensuring the ecological security of the Yellow River Basin and advancing the modernization of harmonious coexistence between humanity and nature. Utilizing the emergy ecological footprint model, this study assessed and mapped the ecological resilience levels across the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2021, spanning various spatial scales including basin sections, provinces, urban agglomerations, and municipal areas. Through a combination of exploratory spatial data analysis, kernel density estimation, and Markov chain analysis, the study uncovered the spatio-temporal patterns and dynamic evolution characteristics of ecological resilience in the basin. The findings unveiled several key insights: (1) Over the examined period, the overall ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, with significant disparities observed in temporal changes across different spatial scales. (2) Spatially, the basin's ecological resilience generally followed a ' high in the west, low in the east' distribution pattern, with high-value zones situated in ecologically sound cities with lower demands for ecological resources, and low-value areas concentrated in provincial capitals, economically developed regions, and resource-based cities. The spatial distribution of ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin was predicted to remain relatively stable in 2028 and 2035, showing a distribution trend of 'high in the west and low in the east.' (3) Spatial correlation analysis showed that the ecological resilience of the Yellow River Basin had a significant positive spatial correlation, forming a trend of high and high agglomeration and low and low convergence. (4) The kernel density estimation showed that the ecological resilience of the Yellow River Basin had the characteristics of unbalanced development, the multi-polarization phenomenon was obvious, and the absolute difference between the upper reaches and the middle and lower reaches was widened. (5) Markov chain analysis showed that the ecological resilience of the Yellow River Basin was stable under different periods, and there was a club convergence characteristic of ' low-level trap' and ' high-level monopoly,' and the mobility gradually increased with the increase of period, but there was no leapfrog development of ecological resilience. When considering the spatial effect, club convergence was neither controlled nor alleviated, and the probability of upward and downward transfer of the neighborhood ecological resilience level to surrounding cities was asymmetrical. This study not only enriches the measurement methods and research paradigms of ecological resilience but also provides a basis and reference for formulating differentiated ecological environmental protection and high-quality development policies in the Yellow River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
