| Abstrakt: |
The article proposes a methodological approach to quantifying direct economic damage from unfavorable and hazardous natural processes and phenomena for railways—an element of the critical infrastructure of the Russian Federation. The methodology is based on a normative approach to assessing the replacement cost of railway lines, which varies depending on the cost of construction in the orographic and climatic conditions of a particular region. The results are presented in the context of municipalities, which makes it possible to better take into account intraregional differences and facilitates their comparison with parameters characterizing natural hazards (floods, hazardous slope-related and geocryological processes, etc.). The calculations showed that the maximum cost of replacing railway lines in the event of natural threats for the country as a whole is about RUB 11 trln in 2021 prices, or approximately 8.4% of Russia's GDP for this year. The first ten regions in terms of the maximum amount of probable damage—Irkutsk, Amur, and Sverdlovsk oblasts; Khabarovsk, Zabaykalsky, Krasnoyarsk, Altai, Krasnodar, and Primorsky krais; and the Republic of Buryatia—account for over 40% of the total replacement cost. It is in these regions that measures to protect the fixed assets of railway transport are particularly important. The obtained data can be used in studies of natural and man-made risk: by comparing them with parameters characterizing the impact of hazardous natural processes and phenomena, it is possible to predict the risk and probable damage to railway infrastructure facilities in certain territories. Using the example of snow avalanches and permafrost degradation due to climate change in the Russian Arctic, the possibilities of this type of assessment are demonstrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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