| Abstrakt: |
Introduction: In the present study, the integration of comprehensive biophysical-economic modeling system of agriculture and water resources in Tehran province was investigated, in order to assess the potential effects of global warming. Materials and Methods: Using General Circulation Models the effects of greenhouse gases on the average climatic variables of temperature and precipitation under the emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 were investigated. A Positive Mathematical Programming model was used to investigate changes in products yields on cropping patterns. Findings: Increasing the farmers' desire to develop the acreage of irrigated wheat, corn and canola and reducing the acreage of irrigated barley, tomato, watermelon and sunflower in the cropping patterns of the northern and southern basins of Tehran province is an important result of application of integrated climate scenario (2 °c increase in temperature and 20 mm decrease in precipitation) in this study. Under the terms of the climate change occurrence, watermelon and sunflower with the most decreasing changes in yield (13/1 and 17/7 percent) and acreage (68/8 and 31/9 percent) as the most sensitive products in cropping patterns were identified. Conclusion: Finally, adopting appropriate production management and market regulation policies to control the production of wheat and barley and also, paying attention to the development of durable products acrage (to climate change) such as rapeseed and corn to the relevant officials and planners of the agricultural sector of Tehran province were suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
