| Abstrakt: |
This paper seeks to assess the success of the Turkish government's current policies and goals in northern Syria since the 2016 military incursion. It analyzes Turkey's institution building, security and military efforts within the framework of its medium and long term goals, while looking at Turkey's increasing military cooperation with local opposition actors and its changing position vis-a-vis foreign actors like the United States and Russia. The paper defines success for Turkish Government in Ankara as countering the operational capability of Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) within Turkey's territory, establishing Turkish strategic dominance in the region, and creating a pro- Turkish structure in northern Syria. Ankara also seeks to uphold its balancing act between the Russia-Iran nexus and NATO in the long term. If such a strategy fails, Ankara will potentially seek to have a greater economic and political say in post-conflict Syria through civil society and public sector involvement. In order to position itself as a permanent major actor in the future of Syria, Ankara needs to uphold its strategic partnership with Russia and Iran. However, Turkey's de-facto rule in northern Syria will likely fail due to ongoing challenges in establishing security in Turkish controlled areas and Ankara's lack of experience in post-conflict state building. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
