Behavioural Change Piecewise Constant Spatial Epidemic Models.
| Autor: | Rahul CR; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Mathematical Sciences Building, University of Calgary, Calgary, T2N 1N4, AB, Canada., Deardon R; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Mathematical Sciences Building, University of Calgary, Calgary, T2N 1N4, AB, Canada.; Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Calgary, 3280 Hospital Dr NW, Calgary, T2N 4Z6, AB, Canada. |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Zdroj: | Infectious Disease Modelling [Infect Dis Model] 2024 Nov 12; Vol. 10 (1), pp. 302-324. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Nov 12 (Print Publication: 2025). |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.idm.2024.10.006 |
| Abstrakt: | Human behaviour significantly affects the dynamics of infectious disease transmission as people adjust their behavior in response to outbreak intensity, thereby impacting disease spread and control efforts. In recent years, there have been efforts to incorporate behavioural change into spatio-temporal individual-level models within a Bayesian MCMC framework. In this past work, parametric spatial risk functions were employed, depending on strong underlying assumptions regarding disease transmission mechanisms within the population. However, selecting appropriate parametric functions can be challenging in real-world scenarios, and incorrect assumptions may lead to erroneous conclusions. As an alternative, non-parametric approaches offer greater flexibility. The goal of this study is to investigate the utilization of semi-parametric spatial models for infectious disease transmission, integrating an "alarm function" to account for behavioural change based on infection prevalence over time within a Bayesian MCMC framework. In this paper, we discuss findings from both simulated and real-life epidemics, focusing on constant piecewise distance functions with fixed change points. We also demonstrate the selection of the change points using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC). Competing Interests: ☒ The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. (© 2024 The Authors.) |
| Databáze: | MEDLINE |
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