Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways.

Autor: Schwaab J; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. jonasschwaab@ethz.ch.; WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF), Davos Dorf, Switzerland. jonasschwaab@ethz.ch., Hauser M; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland., Lamboll RD; Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK., Beusch L; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland., Gudmundsson L; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland., Quilcaille Y; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland., Lejeune Q; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany., Schöngart S; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.; IRIThesys, HU Berlin, Friedrichstrase 191, 10117, Berlin, Germany., Schleussner CF; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.; Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany., Nath S; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany., Rogelj J; Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK.; Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK.; Energy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria., Nicholls Z; Energy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.; Climate Resource, Fitzroy, Victoria, Australia.; School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia., Seneviratne SI; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Scientific data [Sci Data] 2024 Nov 21; Vol. 11 (1), pp. 1262. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Nov 21.
DOI: 10.1038/s41597-024-04122-1
Abstrakt: Due to insufficient climate action over the past decade, it is increasingly likely that 1.5 °C of global warming will be exceeded - at least temporarily - in the 21 st century. Such a temporary temperature overshoot carries additional climate risks which are poorly understood. Earth System Model climate projections are only available for a very limited number of overshoot pathways, thereby preventing comprehensive analysis of their impacts. Here, we address this issue by presenting a novel dataset of spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways. The dataset was created using the FaIR and MESMER emulators. First, FaIR was employed to translate ten different emission scenarios, including seven that are characterised by overshoot, into a large ensemble of forced global mean temperatures. These global mean temperatures were then converted into stochastic ensembles of local annual temperature fields using MESMER. To ensure an optimal tradeoff between accurate characterization of the ensemble spread and storage requirements for large ensembles, this procedure was accompanied by testing the sensitivity of sample quantiles to different ensemble sizes. The resulting dataset offers the unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including the timing and magnitude of temperature thresholds exceedance.
Competing Interests: Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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