Overconfidence in climate overshoot.

Autor: Schleussner CF; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. schleussner@iiasa.ac.at.; Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany. schleussner@iiasa.ac.at.; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany. schleussner@iiasa.ac.at., Ganti G; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.; Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany., Lejeune Q; Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany., Zhu B; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climate et de l'Environnement, LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France., Pfleiderer P; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.; Research Unit for Sustainability and Climate Risks, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany., Prütz R; Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin, Germany.; Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK., Ciais P; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climate et de l'Environnement, LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France., Frölicher TL; Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland., Fuss S; Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin, Germany.; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany., Gasser T; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria., Gidden MJ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany., Kropf CM; Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Zürich, Switzerland., Lacroix F; Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.; Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland., Lamboll R; Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK., Martyr R; Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany., Maussion F; Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK., McCaughey JW; Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Zürich, Switzerland., Meinshausen M; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.; School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.; Climate Resource, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia., Mengel M; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany., Nicholls Z; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.; School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.; Climate Resource, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia., Quilcaille Y; Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland., Sanderson B; Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway., Seneviratne SI; Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland., Sillmann J; Research Unit for Sustainability and Climate Risks, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.; Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway., Smith CJ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK., Steinert NJ; Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway., Theokritoff E; Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.; Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK., Warren R; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK., Price J; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK., Rogelj J; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.; Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK.; Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature [Nature] 2024 Oct; Vol. 634 (8033), pp. 366-373. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Oct 09.
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9
Abstrakt: Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement 1 . This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy 2-5 . Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming 6,7 . To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales 8,9 . Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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