Potential impact of climatic factors on malaria in Rwanda between 2012 and 2021: a time-series analysis.

Autor: Rubuga FK; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland. flxktm86@gmail.com.; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. flxktm86@gmail.com.; School of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Rwanda, Kigali, Rwanda. flxktm86@gmail.com.; Center for Impact, Innovation and Capacity building for Health Information systems and Nutrition (CIIC-HIN), Kigali, Rwanda. flxktm86@gmail.com., Ahmed A; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland.; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.; Institute of Endemic Diseases, University of Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan., Siddig E; Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Erasmus Medical Center, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.; Faculty of Medical Laboratory Sciences, University of Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan., Sera F; Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications 'G. Parenti', University of Florence, Florence, Italy., Moirano G; University of Turin, Turin, Italy., Aimable M; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland.; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.; Rwanda Biomedical Centre, Kigali, Rwanda., Albert T; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland.; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.; Rwanda Biomedical Centre, Kigali, Rwanda., Gallican NR; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland.; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.; Rwanda Biomedical Centre, Kigali, Rwanda., Nebié EI; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland.; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.; Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Nouna, Burkina Faso., Kitema GF; School of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Rwanda, Kigali, Rwanda.; School of Medicine, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK., Vounatsou P; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland.; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland., Utzinger J; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland.; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland., Cissé G; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland.; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.; Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d'Ivoire, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Malaria journal [Malar J] 2024 Sep 10; Vol. 23 (1), pp. 274. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Sep 10.
DOI: 10.1186/s12936-024-05097-5
Abstrakt: Background: Malaria remains an important public health problem, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In Rwanda, where malaria ranks among the leading causes of mortality and morbidity, disease transmission is influenced by climatic factors. However, there is a paucity of studies investigating the link between climate change and malaria dynamics, which hinders the development of effective national malaria response strategies. Addressing this critical gap, this study analyses how climatic factors influence malaria transmission across Rwanda, thereby informing tailored interventions and enhancing disease management frameworks.
Methods: The study analysed the potential impact of temperature and cumulative rainfall on malaria incidence in Rwanda from 2012 to 2021 using meteorological data from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency and malaria case records from the Rwanda Health Management and Information System. The analysis was performed in two stages. First, district-specific generalized linear models with a quasi-Poisson distribution were applied, which were enhanced by distributed lag non-linear models to explore non-linear and lagged effects. Second, random effects multivariate meta-analysis was employed to pool the estimates and to refine them through best linear unbiased predictions.
Results: A 1-month lag with specific temperature and rainfall thresholds influenced malaria incidence across Rwanda. Average temperature of 18.5 °C was associated with higher malaria risk, while temperature above 23.9 °C reduced the risk. Rainfall demonstrated a dual effect on malaria risk: conditions of low (below 73 mm per month) and high (above 223 mm per month) precipitation correlated with lower risk, while moderate rainfall (87 to 223 mm per month) correlated with higher risk. Seasonal patterns showed increased malaria risk during the major rainy season, while the short dry season presented lower risk.
Conclusion: The study underscores the influence of temperature and rainfall on malaria transmission in Rwanda and calls for tailored interventions that are specific to location and season. The findings are crucial for informing policy that enhance preparedness and contribute to malaria elimination efforts. Future research should explore additional ecological and socioeconomic factors and their differential contribution to malaria transmission.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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