Profile and temporal dynamics of the feline sporotrichosis epidemic in southern Brazil: A forecasting analysis.

Autor: Pereira SB; Preventive Veterinary Department, Zoonoses Control Center (UFPel), Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil., Dos Reis Gomes A; Center of Diagnostic and Research of Veterinary Mycology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas/RS, Brazil., Morais MHF; Department of Municipal Health, City Hall de Belo Horizonte, Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Electronic address: mariafranco@pbh.gov.br., Bohm BC; Preventive Veterinary Department, Zoonoses Control Center (UFPel), Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil. Electronic address: biankabohm@hotmail.com., Waller SB; Center of Diagnostic and Research of Veterinary Mycology, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas/RS, Brazil., de Faria RO; Preventive Veterinary Department, Zoonoses Control Center (UFPel), Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil., Bruhn NCP; Mercosur Integration Center, Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel), Pelotas, Brazil., Bruhn FRP; Preventive Veterinary Department, Zoonoses Control Center (UFPel), Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Veterinary parasitology, regional studies and reports [Vet Parasitol Reg Stud Reports] 2024 Sep; Vol. 54, pp. 101091. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jul 31.
DOI: 10.1016/j.vprsr.2024.101091
Abstrakt: A detailed clinical-epidemiological analysis of feline sporotrichosis was conducted, and 288 cases reported between the years 2007 and 2018 were analyzed. The studied cases primarily involved mongrel cats (240/260), males (212/282), and adults (121/200). The main objectives were to identify the risk factors, calculate the monthly incidence rates, and establish a predictive model using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) approach. The statistical analysis revealed significant associations (p < 0.05) between prolonged lesion evolution times and factors such as respiratory signs, prior treatments, and lesion contact. Empirical treatment was identified as a significant risk factor for disease progression. Moreover, the number of cases demonstrated an increasing trend over the study period, with annual peaks noted in disease incidence. The SARIMA model proved to be an effective tool for forecasting the incidence of sporotrichosis, offering robust support for epidemiological surveillance and facilitating targeted public health interventions in endemic regions. The predictive accuracy of the developed model underscored its utility in enhancing disease monitoring and supporting proactive health measures for the effective management of sporotrichosis.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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