Is heat wave a predictor of diarrhoea in Dhaka, Bangladesh? A time-series analysis in a South Asian tropical monsoon climate.

Autor:	Haque F; Institute for Global Health (IGH), University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom.; UK Public Health Rapid Support Team (UK-PHRST), Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom., Lampe FC; Institute for Global Health (IGH), University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom., Hajat S; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom., Stavrianaki K; Department of Statistical Science, Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom., Hasan SMT; Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh., Faruque ASG; Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh., Ahmed T; Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh., Jubayer S; National Heart Foundation Hospital and Research Institute (NHF&RI), Dhaka, Bangladesh., Kelman I; Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction, Institute for Global Health (IGH), University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom.; University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	PLOS global public health [PLOS Glob Public Health] 2024 Sep 03; Vol. 4 (9), pp. e0003629. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Sep 03 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pgph.0003629
Abstrakt:	While numerous studies have assessed the association between temperature and diarrhoea in various locations, evidence of relationship between heat wave and diarrhoea is scarce. We defined elevated daily mean and maximum temperature over the 95th and 99th percentiles lasting for at least one day between March to October 1981-2010 as TAV95 and TAV99 and D95 and D99 heat wave, respectively. We investigated the association between heat wave and daily counts of hospitalisations for all-cause diarrhoea in Dhaka, Bangladesh using time series regression analysis employing constrained distributed lag-linear models. Effects were assessed for all ages and children aged under 5 years of age. Diarrhoea hospitalisation increased by 6.7% (95% CI: 4.6%- 8.9%), 8.3% (3.7-13.1), 7.0 (4.8-9.3) and 7.4 (3.1-11.9) in all ages on a TAV95, TAV99, D95 and D99 heat wave day, respectively. These effects were more pronounced for under-5 children with an increase of 13.9% (95% CI: 8.3-19.9), 24.2% (11.3-38.7), 17.0 (11.0-23.5) and 19.5 (7.7-32.6) in diarrhoea hospitalisations on a TAV95, TAV99, D95 and D99 heat wave day, respectively. At lags of 3 days, we noticed a negative association indicating a 'harvesting' effect. Our findings suggest that heat wave was a significant risk factor for diarrhoea hospitalisation in Dhaka. Further research is needed to elucidate the causal pathways and identify the preventive measures necessary to mitigate the impacts of heat waves on diarrhoea. Given that no heat wave definitions exist for Dhaka, these results may help to define heat waves for Dhaka and trigger public health interventions including heat alerts to prevent heat-related morbidity in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. (Copyright: © 2024 Haque et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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