Global risk of dengue outbreaks and the impact of El Niño events.

Autor: Mokhtar S; Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, School of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA; Department of Mathematics & Statistics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, 87106, USA., Pittman Ratterree DC; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA., Britt AF; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA., Fisher R; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA., Ndeffo-Mbah ML; Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, School of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA. Electronic address: m.ndeffo@tamu.edu.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Environmental research [Environ Res] 2024 Aug 23; Vol. 262 (Pt 1), pp. 119830. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Aug 23.
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.119830
Abstrakt: Background: Dengue fever is an arboviral disease caused by the dengue virus (DENV). Its geographical distribution and health burden have been steadily increasing through tropical and subtropical climates in recent decades.
Methods: We developed a temperature- and precipitation-dependent mechanistic model for the global risk of dengue fever outbreaks using the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) as the metric of disease transmission risk. We used our model to evaluate the global risk of dengue outbreaks from 1950 to 2020 and to investigate the impact of annual seasons and El Niño events.
Results: We showed that the global annual risk of dengue outbreaks has steadily increased during the last four decades. Highest R 0 values were observed in South America, Southeast Asia, and the Equatorial region of Africa year-round with large seasonal variations occurring in other regions. El Niño was shown to be positively correlated with the global risk of dengue outbreaks with a correlation of 0.52. However, the impact of El Niño on dengue R 0 was shown to vary across geographical regions and between El Niño events.
Conclusions: Strong El Niño events may increase the risk of dengue outbreaks across the globe. The onset of these events may trigger a surge of control efforts to minimize risk of dengue outbreaks.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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