Analyzing the use of non-pharmaceutical personal protective measures through self-interest and social optimum for the control of an emerging disease.

Autor: Deka A; Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA; Department of Population Health and Pathobiology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA. Electronic address: adeka@ncsu.edu., Eksin C; Industrial & Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA., Ndeffo-Mbah ML; Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA; Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Mathematical biosciences [Math Biosci] 2024 Sep; Vol. 375, pp. 109246. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jul 04.
DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109246
Abstrakt: Non-pharmaceutical personal protective (NPP) measures such as face masks use, and hand and respiratory hygiene can be effective measures for mitigating the spread of aerosol/airborne diseases, such as COVID-19, in the absence of vaccination or treatment. However, the usage of such measures is constrained by their inherent perceived cost and effectiveness for reducing transmission risk. To understand the complex interaction of disease dynamics and individuals decision whether to adopt NPP or not, we incorporate evolutionary game theory into an epidemic model such as COVID-19. To compare how self-interested NPP use differs from social optimum, we also investigated optional control from a central planner's perspective. We use Pontryagin's maximum principle to identify the population-level NPP uptake that minimizes disease incidence by incurring the minimum costs. The evolutionary behavior model shows that NPP uptake increases at lower perceived costs of NPP, higher transmission risk, shorter duration of NPP use, higher effectiveness of NPP, and shorter duration of disease-induced immunity. Though social optimum NPP usage is generally more effective in reducing disease incidence than self-interested usage, our analysis identifies conditions under which both strategies get closer. Our model provides new insights for public health in mitigating a disease outbreak through NPP.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no competing interests.
(Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
Externí odkaz: