Novel estimation of African swine fever transmission parameters within smallholder villages in Lao P.D.R.

Autor: Matsumoto N; Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW, 2570, Australia., Ward MP; Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW, 2570, Australia., Halasa T; Section of Animal Welfare and Disease Control, Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark., Schemann K; Sydney Informatics Hub, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia., Khounsy S; National Animal Health Laboratory, Department of Livestock and Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic., Douangngeun B; National Animal Health Laboratory, Department of Livestock and Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic., Thepagna W; National Animal Health Laboratory, Department of Livestock and Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic., Phommachanh P; National Animal Health Laboratory, Department of Livestock and Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic., Siengsanan-Lamont J; Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand., Young JR; Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW, 2570, Australia.; Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand., Toribio JLML; Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW, 2570, Australia., Bush RD; Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW, 2570, Australia., Blacksell SD; Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW, 2570, Australia. stuart.blacksell@ndm.ox.ac.uk.; Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand. stuart.blacksell@ndm.ox.ac.uk.; Centre for Tropical Medicine & Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. stuart.blacksell@ndm.ox.ac.uk.; Lao-Oxford-Mahosot Hospital-Wellcome Trust Research Unit (LOMWRU), Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic. stuart.blacksell@ndm.ox.ac.uk.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Tropical animal health and production [Trop Anim Health Prod] 2024 May 17; Vol. 56 (5), pp. 166. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 May 17.
DOI: 10.1007/s11250-024-04012-z
Abstrakt: African Swine Fever (ASF) disease transmission parameters are crucial for making response and control decisions when faced with an outbreak, yet they are poorly quantified for smallholder and village contexts within Southeast Asia. Whilst disease-specific factors - such as latent and infectious periods - should remain reasonably consistent, host, environmental and management factors are likely to affect the rate of disease spread. These differences are investigated using Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte-Carlo methods to provide disease parameter estimates in four naïve pig populations in villages of Lao People's Democratic Republic. The villages represent smallholder pig farmers of the Northern province of Oudomxay and the Southern province of Savannakhet, and the model utilised field mortality data to validate the transmission parameter estimates over the course of multiple model generations. The basic reproductive number between-pigs was estimated to range from 3.08 to 7.80, whilst the latent and infectious periods were consistent with those published in the literature for similar genotypes in the region (4.72 to 6.19 days and 2.63 to 5.50 days, respectively). These findings demonstrate that smallholder village pigs interact similarly to commercial pigs, however the spread of disease may occur slightly slower than in commercial study groups. Furthermore, the findings demonstrated that despite diversity across the study groups, the disease behaved in a consistent manner. This data can be used in disease control programs or for future modelling of ASF in smallholder contexts.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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