| Autor: |
da Silva NR; Departamento de Engenharia Agronômica do Sertão (DEAS), Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS), Rodovia Eng. Jorge Neto-Km 03, s/n, Nossa Senhora da Glória 49680-000, SE, Brazil., Souza PGC; Departamento de Agronomia, Instituto Federal de Ciência e Tecnologia do Triângulo Mineiro (IFTM Campus Uberlândia), Uberlândia 38400-970, MG, Brazil., de Oliveira GS; Programa de Pós Graduação em Produção Vegetal, Universidade Federal dos Vales Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Campus JK, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil., da Silva Santana A; Departamento de Engenharia Agronômica (DEA), Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS), São Cristóvão 49100-000, SE, Brazil., Bacci L; Departamento de Engenharia Agronômica (DEA), Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS), São Cristóvão 49100-000, SE, Brazil., Silva GA; Laboratório de Entomologia e Fitopatologia, Universidade Estadual Norte Fluminense Darcy Ribeiro (UENF), Campos dos Goytacazes 28013-602, RJ, Brazil., Barry EJDV; Programa de Pós Graduação em Produção Vegetal, Universidade Federal dos Vales Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Campus JK, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil., de Aguiar Coelho F; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência Florestal, Universidade Federal dos Vales Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Campus JK, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil., Soares MA; Programa de Pós Graduação em Produção Vegetal, Universidade Federal dos Vales Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Campus JK, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil., Picanço MC; Departamento de Entomologia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Campus UFV, Viçosa 36570-000, MG, Brazil., Sarmento RA; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Produção Vegetal, Universidade Federal do Tocantins, Campus Gurupi, Gurupi 77402-970, TO, Brazil., da Silva RS; Programa de Pós Graduação em Produção Vegetal, Universidade Federal dos Vales Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Campus JK, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil.; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência Florestal, Universidade Federal dos Vales Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Campus JK, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil. |
| Abstrakt: |
The citrus blackfly (CBF), Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby, is an exotic pest native to Southeast Asia that has spread rapidly to the world's main centers of citrus production, having been recently introduced to Brazil. In this study, a maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential worldwide distribution of CBF under current and future climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050. These future scenarios came from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution of CBF with area under receiver operator curve (AUC) values of 0.953 and 0.930 in the initial and final models, respectively. The average temperature of the coldest quarter months, precipitation of the rainiest month, isothermality, and precipitation of the driest month were the strongest predictors of CBF distribution, with contributions of 36.7%, 14.7%, 13.2%, and 10.2%, respectively. The model based on the current time conditions predicted that suitable areas for the potential occurrence of CBF, including countries such as Brazil, China, the European Union, the USA, Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco, are located in tropical and subtropical regions. Models from SSP1-2.6 (2030 and 2050) and SSP5-8.5 (2030) predicted that suitable habitats for CBF are increasing dramatically worldwide under future climate change scenarios, particularly in areas located in the southern US, southern Europe, North Africa, South China, and part of Australia. On the other hand, the SSP5-8.5 model of 2050 indicated a great retraction of the areas suitable for CBF located in the tropical region, with an emphasis on countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, and India. In general, the CMIP6 models predicted greater risks of invasion and dissemination of CBF until 2030 and 2050 in the southern regions of the USA, European Union, and China, which are some of the world's largest orange producers. Knowledge of the current situation and future propagation paths of the pest serve as tools to improve the strategic government policies employed in CBF's regulation, commercialization, inspection, combat, and phytosanitary management. |
