Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the WorldHealth Organization's Blueprint forAction toPreventEpidemics.

Autor:	Salmanton-García J; Institute of Translational Research, Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases (CECAD), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Department I of Internal Medicine, Center for Integrated Oncology Aachen Bonn Cologne Duesseldorf (CIO ABCD) and Excellence Center for Medical Mycology (ECMM), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine), University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Site Bonn-Cologne, Cologne, Germany. Electronic address: jon.salmanton-garcia@uk-koeln.de., Wipfler P; Institute of Translational Research, Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases (CECAD), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Department I of Internal Medicine, Center for Integrated Oncology Aachen Bonn Cologne Duesseldorf (CIO ABCD) and Excellence Center for Medical Mycology (ECMM), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine), University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Site Bonn-Cologne, Cologne, Germany., Leckler J; Institute of Translational Research, Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases (CECAD), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Department I of Internal Medicine, Center for Integrated Oncology Aachen Bonn Cologne Duesseldorf (CIO ABCD) and Excellence Center for Medical Mycology (ECMM), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine), University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Site Bonn-Cologne, Cologne, Germany., Nauclér P; Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Infectious Diseases, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden., Mallon PW; School of Medicine, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland; Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Vincent's University Hospital, Dublin, Ireland; Centre for Experimental Pathogen Host Research (CEPHR), University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland., Bruijning-Verhagen PCJL; Department of Epidemiology, Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands., Schmitt HJ; Institute of Translational Research, Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases (CECAD), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Department I of Internal Medicine, Center for Integrated Oncology Aachen Bonn Cologne Duesseldorf (CIO ABCD) and Excellence Center for Medical Mycology (ECMM), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine), University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Site Bonn-Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Global Health Press Pte. Ltd., Singapore., Bethe U; Institute of Translational Research, Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases (CECAD), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Department I of Internal Medicine, Center for Integrated Oncology Aachen Bonn Cologne Duesseldorf (CIO ABCD) and Excellence Center for Medical Mycology (ECMM), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine), University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Site Bonn-Cologne, Cologne, Germany., Olesen OF; European Vaccine Initiative (EVI), Heidelberg, Germany., Stewart FA; Institute of Translational Research, Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases (CECAD), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Department I of Internal Medicine, Center for Integrated Oncology Aachen Bonn Cologne Duesseldorf (CIO ABCD) and Excellence Center for Medical Mycology (ECMM), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine), University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Site Bonn-Cologne, Cologne, Germany., Albus K; Institute of Translational Research, Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases (CECAD), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Department I of Internal Medicine, Center for Integrated Oncology Aachen Bonn Cologne Duesseldorf (CIO ABCD) and Excellence Center for Medical Mycology (ECMM), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine), University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Site Bonn-Cologne, Cologne, Germany., Cornely OA; Institute of Translational Research, Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases (CECAD), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Department I of Internal Medicine, Center for Integrated Oncology Aachen Bonn Cologne Duesseldorf (CIO ABCD) and Excellence Center for Medical Mycology (ECMM), University Hospital Cologne, Faculty of Medicine), University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Site Bonn-Cologne, Cologne, Germany; University of Cologne, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne, Clinical Trials Centre Cologne (ZKS Köln), Cologne, Germany.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Travel medicine and infectious disease [Travel Med Infect Dis] 2024 Jan-Feb; Vol. 57, pp. 102676. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Dec 06.
DOI:	10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676
Abstrakt:	Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO)'s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities. Methods: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Results: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential. Conclusion: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks. Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest Authors reports no conflicts of interest regarding the current manuscript. (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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